I aim to publish the book in the spring of 2025. This website has been created to summarise the book, provide updates to the numerous contributors to this project.
Let me know if you may want a discounted copy of the book on publication (see top of page) and we will contact you at that time.
Although the book is business focused its preparation has required investigation of psychology, leadership, strategy selection, ambition and organisational culture to fully understand the subject matter. To make sense of the subject I have had to explore the research of many thought leaders who have investigated different aspects of risk taking and opportunity management. I have also tried to make maximum use of case studies to illustrate key principles. Contributors to the book include a diverse group of people, including business leaders, athletes, criminals, artists, and investors.
Here is a short description of each chapter:
Chapter 1: Introduction
Chapter 2: History of risk
Chapter 3: Psychology of risk
Chapter 4: Theory of risk
Chapter 5: Eating the elephant
Chapter 6: Business risks
Chapter 7: Strategy & project suitability risks
Chapter 8: Planning & project delivery risks
Chapter 9: Transaction risks
Chapter 10: Risk Culture
Chapter 11: Performance
Chapter 12: Conclusions
Chapter 1: Introduction
The book’s objective is to explore how outstanding organisations identify and capitalise on opportunities, achieve performance, and manage risk effectively. In a world that is becoming increasingly competitive and regulated, this has become more crucial than ever. To accomplish this, we must chart the landscape of risk and opportunity from the boardroom to the point of transaction delivery. We aim to answer the following questions:
- What exactly are risk and uncertainty?
- What is the relationship between risk, opportunity and performance?
- Why does a boards’ perception and appetite for risk often seem different from that of local leaders?
- What is the role of information in risk management? Is there a danger of risk management becoming an expensive bureaucracy?
- At what point should we accept risk management is not a science but a business judgement?
- Why do successful business leaders in big and small business choose to take different approaches to risk & opportunity management.
- Why is organisational culture so important in determining how an organisation manages risk, innovation and opportunity?
- There are many new management systems with names such as Enterprise Risk Management (ERM), Governance, Risk & Compliance (GRC), ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) and Integrated Risk Management (IRM). How do they fit into the ‘risk landscape’?
Chapter 2: History of risk
We look at how we have progressively changed how we manage risk and opportunity through the ages. We do this by looking at three of the oldest subjects, namely:
Medicine: Healthcare and medicine. In ancient times people would try almost anything to live longer.
Theology & government: How leaders have managed community risk and opportunity
Industry: From games of chance to trading, finance and insurance.
Chapter 3: Psychology of risk
Humans have achieved remarkable success as a species, partly due to their occasional engagement in irrational risk-taking and seizing of opportunities. These biases and their sometimes peculiar and tragic outcomes are worth exploring. In the context of today’s nuclear, chemical, AI, and biological advancements, it is crucial to question whether these ancient behavioural patterns will continue to benefit us.
Chapter 4: Theory of risk
The word ‘risk’ is one of the most commonly used words, yet its definition, measurement, and management often results in complexities. For example if an organisation has no ambition, is also has little risk that it will fail to achieve its objectives. That does not feel like a success! This chapter examines the most prevalent definitions of risk management terms and delves into the fundamental theory of risk management. Subsequent chapters will expand upon this foundation, exploring how business and thought leaders have applied these concepts to capitalise on opportunities and mitigate risks.
Chapter 5: Eating the elephant
In order to eat an elephant, it must first be broken down into manageable parts. If we are to make sense of risk and opportunity in a business context, we also need to find some way of carving up the risk/opportunity elephant.
To do this we have broken the risk and opportunity landscape into a four-level hierarchy. At each of the levels in this hierarchy, organisations need to choose their objectives which then allows them to assess and manage their delivery risks. In the next four chapters we will examine the tools and systems organisations use to do this.
Chapter 6: Business risks (Level 1)
In this chapter we examine the effects of the recent evolution in corporate governance on the management of corporate risks and opportunities. We discuss how effective boards navigate their organisation’s most significant risks and opportunities. The focus areas include board composition, dynamics, the function of audit committee, internal audit, and the collaboration between executives and the board. We also review the value of various companies’ public statements regarding their approach to risk and opportunity management. While managing risk and opportunity is crucial, adeptly handling a crisis is equally vital, as evidenced by the unexpected emergence of COVID-19 in 2020.
Chapter 7: Strategy & project suitability risks (Level 2)
A key role of the executive team is to deliver the organisation’s business objectives and manage associated risks by prioritising and creating effective delivery strategies and projects. As outlined in Chapter 5, these are referred to as Level 2: Objectives, which lead to Level 2: Strategy and project suitability risks. This chapter explores various techniques used by business executives to do this.
Studies indicate that managers and business leaders often hold biased views of customer satisfaction and requirements. The chapter discusses methods that enable the quantification of customer and stakeholder requirements.
Businesses with large opportunities may be prepared to accept more risk and failure if it allows more progress and growth. Similarly small highly entrepreneurial businesses with little to lose and possibly much to gain will also adapt their approach to risk and opportunity to reflect this.
Chapter 8: Planning & project delivery risks (Level 3)
In this chapter we look at the techniques organisations use to choose and prioritise their level 3 objectives and manage the risks inherent with those proposals.
As we move from level 2 objectives/risks to level 3 objectives/risks the numbers of issues and conflicts rises exponentially. Progressively more of these decisions are becoming managed by information systems but other matters are either too changeable or complex for this approach. Historically the only option was to delegate authority to local teams to manage these issues. There are obvious advantages and disadvantages of this approach. As a consequence inventive business leaders have developed and are rapidly improving integrated business systems to give them more control over risk and opportunity. Examples of these integrated management systems are:
• Risk/compliance management systems
• Occupational health & safety management
• Asset management
• Project & programme management
• Process safety management
• Clinical safety management
In this chapter we look at the architecture of some of these systems and who is able to secure assurance that the business is efficient, effective and compliant.
Chapter 9: Transaction risks: (Level 4)
Transaction delivery constitutes a significant portion of an organisation’s activities and costs. The most efficient and effective organisations across industries use information systems to their fullest potential. This chapter examines how organisations ensure efficient transaction delivery, maintain quality, and comply with regulations. It delves into the challenges faced by complex industries like medicine, professional services, crafts, and academic research, where managing productivity and quality is challenging. Finally, it considers the potential impact of AI and machine learning.
Chapter 10: Culture
Organisational culture is arguably the most important single requirement for successful risk and opportunity management. We explore the contributions of some of the foremost thinkers in these fields to investigate why culture is so important for risk management, inquire whether a ‘risk culture’ exists, and examine tools designed to measure and benchmark it. We also explore why CEO’s appear to have higher appetites for risk than local leaders.
Chapter 11: Performance
We begin by exploring how organisations can drive high performance through KPIs, targets, sanctions, and rewards. This requires that managers have enough oversight to require and recognise efficient and effective work.
We investigate how a positive culture can inspire high performance. It is not only an extremely potent dynamic but can also foster high-performance teams in complex business environments. We assess the effects of detrimental issues such as blame on a culture of risk-taking and innovation.
Chapter 12: Conclusions
This chapter summarises the whole book and it designed for the time starved reader.
We have examined may tools and case studies which describe how risk and objectives can be prioritised and managed.
The art of taking worthwhile risk requires a better understanding of the cost of missed opportunities.